Oscars 2026: Why Jessie Buckley Losing Best Actress Will Be This Year’s Biggest Upset 

Jessie Buckley’s award-winning streak for Hamnet makes her the undeniable 2026 Oscar frontrunner. Here’s why her win feels inevitable!

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After Hamnet debuted, it was immediately seen as a prestige award contender, and its most undeniable force became Jessie Buckley. She plays Agnes in the movie and delivers a beautifully raw performance. 

Hamnet is adapted from Maggie O’Farrell’s eponymous novel, and it fictionalizes the devastating loss of Agnes and William Shakespeare’s young son. It essentially reimagines how grief shaped the writing of the famous play, Hamlet. 

So, let’s look at why Jessie Buckley will most likely win an Oscar for this role, and why it would be disappointing if she doesn’t! 

How Jessie Buckley Became the Strongest Oscar Contender in 2026

Jessie Buckley’s award momentum tells the story before the Oscar night does. She had a major victory at the Golden Globe Award for Best Actress – Motion Picture – Drama, and Hamnet also won Best Motion Picture – Drama (via BBC). 

This win alone positioned her as the frontrunner for the Oscar race, because the Golden Globes have been a strong predictor in acting categories. Then she secured another win at the BAFTA Award for Best Actress in a Leading Role (via BBC). 

Her victory here suggested strong cross-industry support, and then came The Actor Awards (formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards), where she won Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role. Moreover, she also received the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Actress. 

Here’s an overview of all the winners in acting categories so far:

So, to put it simply, she has been winning everywhere. This kind of sweep has led most to believe that an Oscar win is inevitable for the actress. Performers who dominate the award season are usually favored by the Academy voters, so if this pattern holds, Buckley’s name is already engraved! 

Why Jessie Buckley Deserves to Win for Playing Agnes in Hamnet 

Jessie Buckley as Agnes was simply hypnotizing. At first, she appears almost like a wandering forest goddess, so connected to nature and the art of healing. The chemistry she builds with Paul Mescal’s William Shakespeare truly convinces you that the two are in love!

Hamnet‘s most heartbreaking sequence is Hamnet’s death, and here, Buckley truly summons the anguish of a mother who’s lost her son. We see her transform from a playful and instinctive woman to a distant, angry, and grieving one. 

While the story is about Shakespeare’s creative awakening, we only feel it after Buckley’s Agnes responds to the play. For those who’ve watched it, you know how moving the scene is, and the control Buckley has on her performance here. 

So, do you also believe that Jessie Buckley truly deserves to win an Oscar for Hamnet? 

Hamnet is currently available to rent and purchase on Prime Video (USA). 

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