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The launch of Disney+ gave the likes of Lucasfilm and Marvel the opportunity to expand their cinematic universes in ways that were previously impossible. All of a sudden, those studios had a platform for TV series that could complement theatrical releases. In an age of transmedia storytelling, the idea was to weave sprawling, interconnected narratives; characters from the TV shows could have their arcs continue in a movie, and vice versa. Unfortunately for the Mouse House, this hasn’t gone as smoothly as they would have liked. The streaming-to-theatrical pattern hasn’t been very successful, with 2023’s The Marvels (which picks up threads from two Disney+ shows) becoming the lowest-grossing Marvel Cinematic Universe movie. Lucasfilm has tried its hand at this with The Mandalorian and Grogu, and while the results haven’t been great, it’s faring better than Marvel.
As of this writing, The Mandalorian and Grogu has grossed approximately $246 million at the worldwide box office (via Box Office Mojo). After 10 days, that figure is higher than what The Marvels made for its entire run ($206.1 million). In terms of Disney’s streaming-to-theatrical franchise movies, The Mandalorian and Grogu is still behind Captain America: Brave New World (which was a follow-up to The Falcon and the Winter Soldier), which earned $415.1 million globally.
Disney’s Streaming-to-Theatrical Era Could Be Over
On paper, the idea of movies and TV shows crossing over with each other is exciting, but it arguably isn’t surprising to see that it didn’t truly work. While die-hard fans of franchises like the MCU and Star Wars make a point to keep up with each new release, that isn’t the case with general audiences, who can be more selective about what they watch. If a movie is picking up from where a TV show (or multiple TV shows) left off, casual viewers may feel they have to watch the series in order to understand what’s happening. Then it becomes a matter of finding the time to do this “homework” on top of other responsibilities and interests. Disney+ is just one of many streaming services vying for people’s attention on a daily basis.
There’s evidence mounting that this streaming-to-theatrical model could become a thing of the past. Disney is revamping its output strategy, placing more of an emphasis on feature films. There will continue to be new content produced for streaming (Daredevil: Born Again Season 3, Ahsoka Season 2), but it isn’t going to be the main priority like it was at the start of the decade. Case in point: Ahsoka is the lone live-action Star Wars TV show officially on the docket. Moving forward, there could be fewer opportunities for these types of movie/TV hybrids, which ideally will benefit Disney’s big franchises. Star Wars: Starfighter stands a better chance of connecting with casual moviegoers by presenting itself as an all-new, standalone Star Wars story made specifically for the big screen.
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The Mandalorian and Grogu may not have put an end to Disney’s streaming-to-theatrical box office trend, but it shouldn’t go down as a loss for Lucasfilm, either. The film’s production budget was $165 million (before marketing and distribution costs), the lowest of any Disney-era Star Wars film. Plus, the box office is just one revenue stream the movie has at its disposal. The Mandalorian and Grogu will bring in more money from theme park tie-ins, merchandise sales, and the eventual home media release. Obviously, everyone involved would have preferred to see it become a massive box office hit, but Lucasfilm and Disney should be satisfied at the end of the day.
It will be interesting to see how The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s box office performance, coupled with Disney’s changes, impacts the future of the New Republic era on screen. At one point, Dave Filoni was in line to direct a film that would have served as a culmination of the various MandoVerse storylines. Since that project was announced in 2023, it’s been quiet on that front — particularly as Filoni has assumed his new position as co-president of Lucasfilm. The Mandalorian Season 4 seems unlikely to happen, but the Grand Admiral Thrawn thread is too important to remain unresolved. Perhaps Ahsoka Season 2 will bring that story to an end, or there’s always a chance the series gets a third season. The odds of a movie bringing that to an end are probably low now.
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No, The Mandalorian & Grogu’s Box Office Doesn’t Mean Star Wars Is Dead (The Real Test Is Next Year)
